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On June 24, 2020, Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences and World Bank jointly held the "Global Economic Outlook" report meeting online, which is also the 23rd lecture of Xinzhi Academic Forum. The main speaker is Dr. M.Ayhan Kose, director of the World Bank Group’s Prospects Group. Liu Shangxi, President of CAFS, hosted the meeting. Sebastian Eckardt, the World Bank’s Lead Economist and Program Leader for China, Mongolia and Korea, attended the meeting and delivered a speech. Feng Qiaobin, deputy minister and researcher of the Department of Macroeconomic Research of the Development Research Center of the State Council, and Yang Zhiyong, vice president and researcher of the Institute of Financial Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, made expert comments. Mr. Patrick Kirby and Mrs. Ekaterine T. Vashakmadze, senior economists of the World Bank Group’s Prospects Group, participated the meeting and exchanged views in discussion.

In the opening remarks, Mr. Eckardt pointed out that this COVID-19 epidemic is unprecedented, it has brought heavy strike to global economy and caused a severe recession. COVID-19 impact not only the developed countries but also the Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs). At present, every economy connected closely. China, as one of the biggest markets in the world, would influence other countries profoundly. Dr. M.Ayhan Kose, Mr. Patrick Kirby and Mrs. Ekaterine T. Vashakmadze from World Bank will introduce the main content of the "Global Economic Outlook" report in the meeting. Mr. Eckardt thanked CAFS for providing this precious opportunity and said that the research team from World Bank will have in-depth discussions with CAFS.

Dr. M.Ayhan Kose explained the main points of the "Global Economic Outlook" report, elaborated the report with three questions. The first question is: what are global growth prospects in the near-term? Dr. Kose pointed out that most countries have adopted measures to control epidemics correspondingly, those measures have been impacted the activities and trade of various countries inevitably, and result in great recession. This recession can be viewed as the deepest and most synchronized global recession since WWII. It is estimated that in 2020, economic activity in developed economies and EMDEs will shrink 7% and 2.5% respectively. The investigation of various economies from World Bank offers a perspective that the global economy is shrinking in general, however, China still hold a positive growth of 0.5%. World Bank forecast that China will has growth of 1% in 2020 and China will become the only major economy with positive growth in 2020. Now, the severe crisis in public health and economic growth brought highly uncertainty to the future global economy, major risks which may burst in the future, such as financial crises amid high debt levels, social unrest and etc., should be fended off. Currently, the most important short-term risk is the infection caused by the second wave of COVID-19 or a local outbreak of the virus. The second question is: What are the likely long-term implications of COVID-19? Dr. Kose said that the COVID-19 epidemic caused mass unemployment and erosion of human capital, slowed the potential output growth. At the same time, the school closures will impact education, which will influence human capital negatively. In the long-term, those changes will cause lasting declines on investment and productivity after epidemics. The third question is: What are policy priorities? It is important to solve the urgent issues, but we should also be forward-looking on policy-making, said Dr. Kose. How to pursuing reforms to reignite growth, enhancing debt and investment transparency, and coordinating policies globally are all important issues that need to be considered. The process to overcome this severe recession and recover the economy will be hard and difficult, policy maker should formulate comprehensive measures, maintain a positive attitude and respond to the changes of epidemics promptly.

In the session of expert comments, Yang Zhiyong, vice president and researcher of the Institute of Financial Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that the "Global Economic Outlook" report investigated 183 economies over the period 1870-2021, provided an overall comment on current global economy and frame of reference to researchers. How to controlling COVID-19 epidemic, increasing policy support, strengthening international cooperation, and stimulating market vitality are issues that should be paid attention to in the future. Feng Qiaobin, deputy minister and researcher of the Department of Macroeconomic Research of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that this report delivered a comparatively pessimistic forecast on global economy, which is an alert to all countries. In general, Chinese government has adopted a series of policies and measures at present, the economy is recovering overall.

In the session of discussion, participants asked questions about what kind of macro policies should be adopted to hedge new risks in the future, and how to evaluate the policy space of fiscal and monetary policies in developed and developing countries. Dr. Kose, Mr. Kirbu and Mrs. Vashakmadze answered all the questions in detail.

President Liu Shangxi conclude that, from the brilliant report Dr. Kose delivered, a major feature of the current international community can be summarized, that is, the world is facing a high degree of uncertainty. Under the situation of epidemic prevention and control, how to increase the certainty of economic and social development is a major and long-term issue. Dr. Kose and experts from World Bank provided us some research ideas to some extent. With the influence of epidemics, there may arise a new economic and social-life situation of human race. CAFS hopes to strength collaboration and make further research on how to face the new situation with experts from World Bank.

More than 180 people from related departments, institutions, researchers of CAFS, postgraduates and media reporters attended this report meeting.

Xinzhi Academic Forum is a leading academic brand built by Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences, with feature of multidisciplinary and diversified knowledge. The forum has been held 22 sessions successfully since 2016, it increased the influence of CAFS among think tanks effectively.